We all know that the class drop is one of the good horse racing angles for finding contenders in a horse race.
If a horse has been racing against tougher competition than it is facing in today's race, then it only makes sense that it will do better today.
However, though that makes sense intuitively, it doesn't always hold up in real life situations.
The problem is that while a horse may be dropping in class today, it may also be suffering a loss of form as well.
We make allowances for a runner that is in over its head and say that it should have an excuse for finishing poorly, but on the other hand, we do like to see that it tried and even competed at some point in the race.
There are several ways to approach the problem of whether or not today's class dropping runner will actually be able to compete at today's level.
First of all, we have one of my favorite plays in horse racing.
That's the one who has been there and done that, as they say.
In other words, a horse that has raced at this track, distance, and level and won.
For instance, if the race is a $10,000 open claimer at 6 furlongs for older horses and the horse in question has won such a race in the past year, then it has proven it can do what is being asked of it.
Another good play that I look for is a horse that raced on the lead or within a few lengths of the leader at the second call in its last race.
Even if this horse eventually fell far behind, if it managed to show some competitiveness in the early stages of the race, it may do the same today, but since the horses in this race will be of a lower class, it may well hang on today and prevail over them.
The same is true of a horse that closed well in its last race.
I'm not talking about just passing tired rivals, but actually gaining lengths on the leader in the final stages of the race.
A strong late run may indicate a horse that will continue to try even when it is clearly beaten at a higher grade.
This type of horse often runs closer to the leaders when dropped into a lower level and can win, sometimes at a good price.