Betting the 2009 Final Four

The college basketball field has been narrowed to four and that number will be cut in half once again on Saturday, as North Carolina takes on Villanova and Michigan State battles with Connecticut.

The Tar Heels opened as an eight-point favorites and a total of 160 and are now favored by seven with the total dropping to 159.

U Conn opened as a four-point favorite and the total was 135.


The Huskies are still favored by four, although the total has dropped to 133.5.

When it comes to the Final Four, the best advice I've heard came from noted sports handicapper Jim Barnes, who said "the Final Four is for watching, not for betting." But since we're probably going to ignore those words of wisdom, let's take a quick look at the two games.

North Carolina vs. Villanova

The line on the North Carolina is about what it should be, although the Tar Heels are favored by 1.5 points more than my power rating suggest. But you do have to factor in the loss of Ty Lawson for the ACC Tournament, which dropped the Heels a bit with the number crunchers.

Villanova lost by more than seven points three times on the season, making it a bit difficult to lay that many points. The one concern about taking the Wildcats, however, is that they seem content to play whichever style the opponent wants to.

The Wildcats have played 56-54 games against the likes of Georgetown, and have 102-85 games against Syracuse.

North Carolina wants to run and scored less than 70 points just once all season, that coming in a 69-65 victory over Miami, Fla.

Logic would dictate an under play, but I'm not so sure Villanova won't go out there and run with the Tar Heels, making the total a bit of a risk.

The betting on the game has been pretty even, but if forced to take a stand, I'd give the slightest of leans to the Wildcats.

Michigan State vs. Connecticut

The public is backing the Huskies in this one, with almost two-thirds of the wagers coming in on U Conn. The betting seems to make sense, as most power ratings have the Huskies favored from 5 to 6 points, although the Spartans are probably receiving a minor adjustment for playing in their home state.

Like Villanova, the Spartans don't lose often, but when they do, they have a tendency to lose big. All six of Michigan's State's losses were by four or more points, with four of them coming by 12 or more points.

Even though the public has done fairly well during the tournament, I'd prefer not to be on the same side of them for the final three games of the season, so despite everything pointing towards U Conn, I'd be inclined to give a lean to the Spartans.

Odds to Win the Tournament

Obviously, North Carolina is a large favorite to come away with the title Monday night and are currently less than even money. The Huskies are the second choice to win it all.

Odds to Win the Tournament:

North Carolina -125
Connecticut +250
Michigan State +500
Villanova +600

The Huskies probably offer the best value, especially if you like them to defeat Michigan State, while North Carolina is difficult to bet at those odds. If the two favorites win on Saturday, the Tar Heels are likely to be a 2- to 3-point favorite, primarily on name and reputation. Most power ratings will have the two teams within a point, but North Carolina is a more public team than the Huskies.