You would be forgiven if you were not all that anxious to see B.J. Upton in the lineup for the 2015 version of the Atlanta Braves. In addition to his poor play since signing agreeing to a $75.25 million contract during the winter of 2012-13, the Braves look to be rebuilding for the future and have shed players like B.J.'s younger brother. Those players were often a whole lot more productive than B.J.


has been. 

The common sentiment on social media has been to trade B.J. to move on from what has been a disaster that in no small part cost Frank Wren his job. Again, that is an understandable point-of-view. The numbers do B.J. no favors. In 267 games since signing with the Braves, Upton has slashed (AVG/OBP/SLG) his way to a .198/.279/.314 line while "earning" over $26M. He's hit less homers and stolen just one more base than he did in his final season with Tampa. Yeah, trade this bum!

Whoa, wait a minute, though. Trade him for what? You might reply, "does it matter?" and the answer is that it probably does not matter all that much. The problem with hoping for a trade is that the Braves would have to find a taker. Everyone else also has access to the numbers that look so horrid. It is readily available that Upton is due $14.45M in 2015, plus an additional $31.9M in 2016-17. There are some bad general managers out there and I typically caution against using absolute statements, but no team is busting down the door to acquire Upton.

There exists but two possible trades and neither should excite you.

Scenario #1: Trade Upton for another bad contract. I looked at this at my blog back in November. I profiled players like Ubaldo Jimenez (Baltimore), Nick Swisher (Cleveland), and Edwin Jackson (Chicago Cubs). The last name actually came with a bit of steam. All three came with considerable concerns and none of the contractual money lined up perfectly, but that is a fixable situation, though that is a problem with this kind of scenario. When trading bad contracts, neither team wants to take on money they didn't already have committed to begin with. Now, this kind of deal does has some intrigue as  the players would get a change of scenery and sometimes, that goes a long way. Theoretically, if the Braves were to send roughly $24M and Upton for a player like Jackson and his 2 years and $22M left, they would be paying the same amount of money they have already committed, but opening a spot on the roster quicker. That does have some appeal.

Scenario #2: Trade Upton, cash, and prospects. Well, if you want to avoid taking on another bad player, you could get rid of Upton by packaging a couple of good prospects and a seriously depressing amount of money (call Brinks, they can help with delivery). This option's appeal is immediate in that you avoid another team's problematic veteran. You might take on a short-term bad deal (see: Derek Lowe), but you avoid holding down a spot for that under-performing veteran for a frustrating amount of time. That is where the appeal ends, though. What prospects would interest a team enough to take on Upton? Would you have to package a pair of the players you just worked so hard to revamp the system with (Tyrell Jenkins, Rio Ruiz?) to get rid of Upton? It seems unlikely you will really get much financial freedom so you are essentially ruining the value of prospects to get rid of Upton and not even reaping any benefits outside of not having B.J. in the lineup.

Of course, there exists another option and that is to release Upton. After all, the Braves are already planning for Upton's salary so if you are going to pay him anyway, does it matter if he's on your roster or at home playing Madden? Economically, you can even argue this case. Don Simpson of Talking Chop argued, when considering cutting Dan Uggla, that the Uggla's salary "should have no bearing" on whether or not Uggla should have been released. The article was written in November of 2013 and Uggla was ultimately released last season. His salary, like B.J.'s, was a sunk cost. 

So, let us look at the option of cutting B.J. from a non-economic point-of-view. What do the Braves have to lose? Well, first, there is value. While Upton was bad last year, he did show some improvement over his first season in isolated power and weighted on-base average. He has also played average defense the last two years according to Fangraphs's defensive metrics. That might not mean a lot when you say he is an average defender, but remember that he is a center fielder. Playing center field at a major league average is not a given. Furthermore, you would be releasing before his age-30 season. Even if he played out the rest of his contract, it was signed with the idea that would cover, theoretically, his prime years. Is it that hard to imagine Upton improving in 2015 to at least halt his early decline? 

Again, let's ignore the actual contract, but it is also fair to mention that releasing a player two years into a five year contract could backfire when talking contracts with other players who may feel that if they under-perform, they could be cast aside. Finally, who replaces Upton? This is another game changer in the argument for me. When the Braves finally did cut Uggla, it was to hand the job to Tommy La Stella, who was a promising prospect. Who gets the job if you release Upton? Remember that, as of right now, there is an open competition in left field. Of those players, potentially three could also be in the picture to play center (Todd Cunningham, Jose Constanza, Dian Toscano). None of those players are really lighting up the minor leagues like La Stella was (to be fair, Toscano is a new addition signed out of Cuba, but he was a borderline prospect when he signed). It is no certainty that any of those players would outproduce Upton in 2015. The Braves do have Mallex Smith, a player with game-changing speed who was acquired in the Justin Upton trade, but Smith is probably two years away. 

Without considering the salary, it only seems like the reasonable choice to retain B.J. Upton's services for the time being. Releasing him does not appear it will make the team better and Upton is still young enough to think he can bounce back. On a team with a lot of offensive questions, the Braves need Upton more than ever. He might sink rather than swim, but who knows? Ironically, it may come after Wren was fired for us to see why he signed Upton in the first place.