We're down to four teams in the college basketball tournament, so let's look at the Final Four match-ups for Saturday and then we'll look at the potential match-ups in the title game.

Duke vs. Michigan State: Duke opened as 4.5-point favorites and the line is now up to five, as the Blue Devils have been attracting nearly two-thirds of the wagers in this game. The total opened 140.5 and is now down to 139.5 with a slight majority of the bets coming in on the under.


My AOPR numbers make it 75-69 in favor of the Blue Devils, so there's really not much value in taking either the side or the total.

The Spartans average 71.4 points per game on 46.7% shooting and allow 63.2 points per game, as they limit the opposition to 39.3% shooting. Michigan State's opponents allowed an average of 64.4 points per game during the season, giving MSU a +7.0 rating on offense and they averaged 68.7 points per game, giving the Spartans a +5.5 on defense. It's slightly surprising to see MSU with a higher offensive plus than on defense, as you think of the Spartans as being a defensive-minded team.

The Blue Devils average 79.5 points per game on 50.2% shooting and allow 64.3 points on 42.3% shooting. Duke's opponents allowed an average of 65 points per game, giving the Blue Devils a +14.5 offensively and scored an average of 69.3, giving Duke a +5.0 on defense.

Strength of schedule figures are pretty even, so if I had to take a stand I'd lean to the Blue Devils, but it's really a toss-up.

Kentucky vs. Wisconsin: The Wildcats opened as 5.5-point favorites and the line is down to 5, as more than half the bets are coming in on the Badgers. The total opened at 130 and is now 131.

While it's easy to think of the Badgers as an offensive team, especially after what they did to Arizona's defense, they have a much better defensive rating than offense, as Wisconsin averages 71.4 points against teams allowing 65.4 points, for a +6.0, while holding teams who average 69.6 points to 57.8 points, which is a +11.8

The Wildcats are much the same, scoring 71.2 points against teams allowing 65.6,which is a +5.6, while allowing just 53.9 points to teams scoring 68.5, which is +14.6.

Running several different sets of AOPR numbers gave predicted finals of Kentucky 64-59 and 63-60, depending on the numbers used, so again, it's a tough game to predict and the officials could have a say in the manner, as Wisconsin is probably the best team in the country at getting away with slight movement on their picks, which is the sign of a smart, well-coached team.

Right now, if I had to do something, would lean to the under, but that will likely change before Saturday.

I have the winner of this game going on to win the national championship, with rough numbers of Kentucky defeating Duke 72-63 and the Wildcats coming away with a 71-57 victory over Michigan State.

It would likely be a little bit closer if Wisconsin is playing, as the numbers give the Badgers a 71-68 victory over Duke and a 70-61 victory over Michigan State.