One of the biggest criticisms that coaches have of the flex offense is that it is too predictable.
Ironically, the flex's predictability is also one of its great strengths when it allows a well-taught ballclub to execute aggressively and with purpose.
Still, the criticism is valid in several situations.
Smart defenders can become adept at "playing the play" and taking away primary scoring options against offenses (or individual players) that go through the same routine on every offensive possession.
Coaches also get good at 'playing the play' by utilizing defensive tactics that force the offense to adjust in order to remain effective.
One of the most popular adjustments that coaches make against a flex is switching man to man defenses.
What is the solution to the predictability problem? I think there are two answers: 1.
Great ball movement.
I see FAR, FAR too many teams run the flex and do NOTHING but pass back and forth from guard to guard, only looking for shots from the flex cut or the down screen.
I've seen teams waste entire possessions doing this without ever passing to the wings or post.
SO many good things happen when the ball changes sides of the floor (and goes into the post) - that flex teams that don't do it are making the flex MUCH more predictable than it really is.
2.
For teams that run patterned continuities like the flex, a simple but effective package of set plays allows you to stay aggressive, continue to execute, and also to adjust.
Plays also keep lazy defenders honest by throwing something different at them from time to time.