It was a study of fractals in Elliot Wave Principle and its applicability to the Theory of Chaos that brought me back from a hiatus of putting my thoughts on disaster management and related issues.
Reflecting on natural disasters, the destruction they wreaked over the years, and the emerging trends of increasingly extreme weather patterns pricked my curiosity that "higher degree fractals" of disasters are playing out in 2010.
As the world's attention got caught in the frenzy of the FIFA battle of the best soccer teams, news about natural disasters (floods, landslides, typhoons, etc) in the Asian region especially over the past two months received scarce interest.
The natural disasters which occurred in the past few years were apparently unwinding a bigger spiral in the broader picture of chaos.
This time around, the natural calamities are getting worse and if perceived through the "fractals" looking glass, it's obvious the disasters are of a higher degree.
As 2010 unfold, flash floods which previously were rare occurrences in Singapore started to become a regular feature beginning April.
In much localized incidents, houses affected by the flash flood were under ankle- deep during the heavy downpour.
Hardly three months later before more rounds of heavy downpours in mid June caused further flash floods which wreaked havoc in many parts of central Singapore.
During the inter-monsoon season it is not unusual to have heavier downpours than normal.
That it happened more often of late raised a lot of questions as to the underlying causes.
(i) In neighboring Malaysia, during the same week prolonged and unusually heavy rains caused flash floods in several parts of Malacca and Johor Bharu.
Luckily for the historical city of Malacca, flood mitigation measures were almost completed, and were it not so, the situation would have been worse and may be catastrophic.
Over in southern China, similar extreme weather which coincided with the annual storm season lashed out with ferocity, killing at least 132 people and displaced 800,000.
In the worst hit areas in Nanchang, Jiangxi province, streets turned into rivers and people abandoned their homes.
The region saw varying scale of extreme weather from the worst droughts in living memory in south-east China to areas inundated with three times the average rain for this period.
In the industrial hubs of the China coast -Guangdong and Fujian, thousands of houses were destroyed and businesses and power lines put out of action.
Economic damage was estimated to be USD 12 billion.
Disaster broke loose when fast-flowing rivers burst their banks and the ensuing mudslides which buried homes.
The Chinese National Meteorological Centre warned that the worst has yet to come while noting that the scope and intensity of the rains have increased.
Agricultural production took a bashing with an estimated 500,000 hectares (1.
24m acres) of crops destroyed.
While flooding is a regular feature of summer, the meteorological centre confirmed that extreme weather events have increased in recent years, with longer droughts and more intense rainfalls with "damaging bursts".
(ii) Continuing rain hampered rescue efforts aimed at assisting 4.
4 million people evacuated from their homes.
Landslides cut off transportation and about 368,000 houses destroyed.
The June 2010 floods in southern China have been especially heavy spreading across 10 provinces and regions in the south and along the eastern coast.
(iii) It evoked memories of severe flooding in China in 1998 and the discovery then that many flood-prevention dykes were of shoddy quality, obviously weak links which require attention within the ambit of mitigation measures.
The same period saw extreme weather triggered disasters manifesting elsewhere including heat waves across eastern Canada and US which broke hundreds of temperature records, south-west monsoon storms in India, severe drought and large wildfires in Bolivia, and extreme temperatures in Russia with severe droughts which destroyed almost 20% of the nation's crops.
Russia experienced the hottest summer on record for the country and a state of emergency declared after almost 1000 incidents of forest fires with some close to the Moscow region.
The natural disasters across the globe covered the full spectrum of extreme weather.
Provinces in northern China suffered heat waves in July while the southern provinces received the onslaught of monsoon rains.
In all these disasters there were people killed or displaced from their homes, houses damaged or destroyed.
Severe storms (Hurricane Alex) made landfall over northeastern Mexico while in the Asia-Pacific region Typhoon Conson caused destruction in its path through Luzon, Philippines, Hainan Island (China) and also Vietnam.
South China again got battered with Typhoon Chanthu which brought more rainfall to the already soaked region of Guangdong.
(iv) In Latin America, floods in north-east Brazil engulfed two states forcing at least 100,000 to flee their homes.
Some towns have been nearly 100% destroyed, basically wiped off the map.
Over in South Asia more than 1 million people were affected by the worst floods in north-western Pakistan for 35 years, the disaster attributed to the heaviest monsoon rains in a generation.
The disaster which is the worst in memory in Pakistan have devastated the lives of more than 3 million people and killed more than 1,400 people.
Humanitarian efforts are being geared to reach an estimated 1.
8 million in dire need of water food and shelter.
Wherever natural disaster strikes, access remains a major hurdle in providing assistance to affected areas as the infrastructural framework are significantly damaged or destroyed.
The 2010 natural disasters to date unfolded greater fury in their intensity of onslaught and destruction and the overall nature of their characteristics point to unwinding spirals of disaster fractals of higher degree.
Some already attributed 2010 as the Year of Disasters and the level of destruction and sufferings these past few months make it most disastrous year on record.
References: (i) Flash floods in various parts of Singapore By Satish Cheney, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 05 April 2009 1841 hrs (ii) The Guardian.
co.
uk.
China devastated by floods.
Sunday 20 June 2010 (iii) Death toll in China flooding climbs to 377.
Associated Press.
Fri Jun 25, 5:05 am ET (iv) State of the Climate Global Hazards, July 2010, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, Updated 27 July 2010