Hello, and welcome to your fortnightly newsletter from the offices of TrainerTrackStats.
In this issue: - Review since last newsletter - Coming Next...
- System angle: Blindingly Obvious Winners! - The TTS Joke...
- Tomorrow's qualifiers - REVIEW SINCE LAST NEWSLETTER - There's been some tremendous racing since my last letter, on both sides of the pond, and at both codes.
Flat racing Stateside first, and I was lucky enough to be at Churchill Downs to witness America's best and some of the finer horses from the rest of the globe compete in the annual Breeders' Cup jamboree.
I actually went to the track Friday and Saturday, and I'm glad I did.
Gerard Butler saddled the only UK runner on Friday's card, and it duly won.
At 23/1! I had a nice win bet which paid for my airfare and hotel.
On the Saturday, the main action took place, with a series of eight races, culminating in the $5 Million Breeders' Cup Classic.
The highlight for me was witnessing the British supermare, Ouija Board, laugh at her rivals again in the Filly and Mares Turf.
As ever in the US turf races, and as mentioned in my last newsletter, the US turf horses patently didn't stay the trip, and The Queen of Newmarket won in little more than a canter.
8/5 with hindsight was a knocking bet, and I'd pulled on the punting boots beforehand (playing up Butler's Bayeux winnings) to ensure the expenses were covered too.
I shouted myself hoarse, as did all my cohorts, and the race was followed by much whooping and high fiving.
Well, when in Rome...
In the main event, Bernardini was sent off hot favourite at around even money, but I - and many others - had made him a lay.
There was a very strong shout from Nick Mordin (a man I rate very highly for his statistical approach to racing) for a horse called Invasor.
Starting around 6/1 and from an unpromising stall position in 11, he came late and fast to mow down Bernardini in the stretch, and win going away.
He's a really impressive animal and may well show up at the Dubai World Cup (given he's owned by Sheikh Maktoum).
Since last time, and as I write this, the jumps season has well and truly come to life, with the November Open Meeting at Cheltenham having been staged last weekend.
Pipe openers for many of the big guns, and a few very impressive performances.
Pick of the bunch for me were Star De Mohaison, a winner for TTS, of an ultra-competitive handicap hurdle.
Given that he won the Sun Alliance Chase last season at the festival, hurdles were by no means an obvious starting point for the season, but he ate these alive, and will go next for the Hennessy at Newbury in a couple of weeks time.
He looks a superstar, and may well return to the West country next March in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Another horse worthy of mention - though for different reasons - is Detroit City.
This grey equine machine sluiced up, leading from 'tapes up' to post carrying topweight on sodden ground.
So, why notable for different reasons? Well, Detroit City is a four year old (five from January 1st next year), and has been given a best quote of 5/1.
Five year old hurdlers have a diabolical record in the Champion Hurdle, with none winning since See You Then in 1985.
Incidentally, in 1998, Kribensis was a five year old, and was sent off the 11/8 favourite, trained by Sir Michael Stoute.
He laboured badly and eventually finished a well beaten 7th.
I love Detroit City as a horse, and I will be following his career with interest but, when it comes to Cheltenham next March, I will be swerving him in the two mile championship.
You heard it here first! As for TTS performance since the last letter, well, after the trailblazing start of September, and the late and lucrative rally of October, its fair to say that November - thus far - has been like the weather: a real damp squib.
With more seconds than Billy Bunter and Oliver Twist put together, the month to date was perhaps best summed up by the performance of Shekel on 9th November.
Sent off at 9/2 in a National Hunt Flat race, i.
e.
no obstacles to negotiate, he was upsides the leader a furlong from the finish and cruising when the saddle slipped.
Horse and jockey unceremoniously parted.
Unseated rider was the official verdict.
In a flat race! Overall, we're still showing a profit of £509 (to a £20 stake) since the seasonal curtain up.
- COMING NEXT..
..
- The National Hunt (jump racing) season is now in full swing, and there's plenty of action for TTS punters to get stuck into.
Indeed, from now until the end of the year (excluding the traditional Christmas Eve and Day break), there is jump racing every day.
If you haven't already got your copy of TrainerTrackStats to help you in the battle with the bookie, now is an ideal time to hop on board! Big upcoming fixtures include the Allied Irish Bank meeting at Ascot this weekend, and the 50th Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Newbury on 25th November.
If you, like me, are a jump racing fan, you'll be only partially sated by the great equestrian sport of last weekend, and licking your lips at the prospect of so much more to come.
And, with the help of TTS, it could get even better! -- SYSTEM ANGLE: BLINDINGLY OBVIOUS WINNERS! -- One of my customers recently wrote to me and asked if I knew of any products that he could use with a betting bank of only ten units.
Given that I always recommend at least 20, and ideally 25, units for level stakes betting, I suggested to him a lay system that I'm aware of which does pretty well at generating small profits consistently.
That got me thinking about high strike rate systems, and reminded me of a dear old racing text written by a man called Clive Holt.
Clive had a website - no longer there - called fineform.
com back at the dawn of the internet revolution.
And he wrote a great book full of common sense, called 'Winners Back Winners'.
Central to its ethos was a formula based on standout credentials: a horse winning its last two races; having won over the course, and the distance (though not necessarily together); and being in the first three in the betting and first three in Racing Post Ratings.
I wondered on how that had performed over the years since 1998, when I bought the book, and so I set Racing Systems Builder to work on the task.
RSB told me that the system was good, but - overall - not quite profitable.
After all, we are dealing with the blindingly obvious here! However, with a few rational tweaks, I honed Clive's system to one that has generated a very high strike rate and reasonable returns from a number of very select wagers.
- Must have run twice or more this season, and won last two starts.
- Must have won at the course, and at the distance, though not necessarily together.
- Forecast in the first three in the betting, and 7/2 or shorter at the off - 9 years old or younger - No more than 11 runners in the race YEARWINSRUNS STRIKE%LSP LSP%VSP% 2001306248.
39 20.
3432.
81 21.
49 2002306844.
12 -3.
22-4.
74 -0.
51 2003234847.
925.
9412.
37 16.
18 2004275251.
92 27.
7353.
33 24.
13 2005163743.
242.
51 6.
78 15.
19 ____________________________________________________________ 126 26747.
19 53.
3019.
96 13.
34 As you can see, from one or two selections a week, there's a very healthy and consistent profit to be generated.
- THE TTS JOKE..
..
...
- A very old joke for this newsletter, but a classic - I can almost hear the groans from here...
An inflatable jockey was riding an inflatable horse for an inflatable trainer and an inflatable owner, for the first time over the jumps.
Leading easily after the last he pulls up too early and two horses go past him.
After the race the jockey was so mad he stuck a pin in the horse, then he stuck a pin in the trainer and then the owner.
He was called in front of the Stewards whereupon he stuck a pin in himself.
The Stewards said to him, 'not only did you let the horse, the trainer and the owner down, but you've also let yourself down.
' Boom Boom! -- TOMORROW'S QUALIFIERS -- The TTS runners for Wednesday, 15th November are: Hexham 12.
50 Beau Largesse Cedrus Libani Toy Gun (PRICE WARNING) 1.
20Player 1.
50Circassian Warwick 12.
40 Corso Palladio 1.
10Golden Duck 1.
40Aubigny Bally's Bro Ordre De Battaille Beat The Boys (PRICE WARNING) 2.
10Jack The Giant Note the (PRICE WARNING).
These horse - like all qualifiers - must be 14/1 or shorter to be a qualifier.
-- REMINDER / NEXT LETTER...
-- Well, that's all for this letter.
I hope you've enjoyed reading it.
If you haven't already secured your copy of the jump racing statistical bible that is TrainerTrackStats, you can do so at http://www.
TrainerFlatStats.
com.
Or, if you prefer to try before you buy, you can sign up for a free trial subscription at http://www.
TrainerFlatStats.
com/subscribe Next newsletter will be in your inbox on or around 29th November.
Finally, if you have any comments / feedback on this letter, or anything you'd like to see in future, please email your suggestions to enquiries@trainerflatstats.
com I'll look forward to hearing from you! As ever, thanks for reading, and best regards