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Will Narendra Modi Be the Next Prime Minister: Who Can Be the Spoiler?

First thing is always the first. Next 120 days is bound to witness unprecedented and pragmatic animosity among the different political groups in quest for upcoming Lok Sabha elections. This article by no means or intent is written to back up or favor any one political party or agenda.

Let me build the premises to start with. There is a strong likelihood that congress lead by Rahul Gandhi will not make up to any combination to stake power for the third consecutive term in 2014. In the light of the fact that Narendra Modi is spewing togetherness of Hindutva and Development in his well organized rallies across India, Congress strategy is three folds.

First, under all circumstances, the main objective is not to stop BJP+ to come to power at the centre but to stop Narendra Modi to become the prime minister. Rahul has this insinuation in his mind that if NaMo becomes the prime minister in 2014 then he and congress will lose 2019 as well for sure. NaMo will become a prime minister only if BJP alone crosses 190 seats. The arithmetic of BJP position is not a clandestine in this internet era. BJP has no presence in the states of AP, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and North Eastern states. This accounts for 168 seats that it has to ignore. Now, for the remaining 375 seats Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra has dominant presence of regional parties and for BJP to reach its magical figure of 190 seats, its performance in these three states will be crucial in the same order as they appear above. If BJP is restricted between 160-180 seats, NDA will come to power but NaMo will not be a prime minister. In such a case it will be easier for Congress to have a comeback in next 3-5 years at the centre.

Second line of strategy of Congress is to help in fragmenting the electorate results by allowing Third Front forces in WB, TN, Orissa, UP and Andhra to have an upper hand by providing an inept contest from its own side. If third front will come to power, Congress will be benefit in two major ways. It can traverse through all the allegations of corruption during UPA regime in the last 10 years and in the meantime BJP leadership will also find cracks within the party and few other leaders other than NaMo will find centre stage on the national front.

Third strategy is to stop Mamta, Jaylalitha or Chandrababu Naidu to be in a position of being Kingmakers at the centre. This can be achieved by supporting forces like Samajwadi Party or AAP to form government at the centre. In such a scenario, returning to power will be in paradigm of what happened in 1980 or in 1991 post Charan Singh and Chandrashekhar regimes respectively.

To conclude, will it be again Urban vs. Rural seats in 2014 as Congress got a massive haul of around 200 urban seats making its tally go from 145 seats in 2004 To 206 seats in 2009. The social media has been actively playing a haughty role in propagating corruption issues of Congress on one hand and orthodox vision of NaMo's Hindutva on the other hand in all these 200 urban seats.

Who will be the biggest spoiler in the prime ministerial ambitions of NaMo - Congress, section within BJP who might dump Modi after using him, people who always vote as a block or Uttar Pradesh alone? We need a candid answer to this harbinger.

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